CNERG: Analysis and predictions of land use/land coverage changes with the CA-Markov model
Tirdad Naeimi, SMART Centre
This study examined historical land use and land cover changes in Guelph from 2001 to 2022 and forecasted future trends up to 2037 using the Cellular Automata-Markov model. Rapid urbanization has significantly altered land use patterns, increasing developed areas while reducing forest cover and other land types. Understanding these trends is essential for urban planning, sustainability, and resource management.
Using satellite imagery and geospatial analysis, the study identified significant shifts in land use over two decades and projected continued urban expansion. While urban development is expected to grow further by 2037, forested areas are projected to decline, raising concerns about environmental sustainability. The findings provide evidence-based insights for policymakers to guide sustainable urban planning and land conservation efforts.
Future research will refine land classification methods, incorporate high-resolution aerial imagery and LiDAR for improved accuracy, and integrate socio-economic factors such as transit access and population density to enhance urban growth modeling. These improvements will strengthen predictive analysis and support informed decision-making for sustainable land use planning.